2026 1st Quarter Letter
Weighing Private Credit Headlines and Conflict Overseas
Dear Clients,
The first quarter of 2026 reminded investors that markets rarely move in straight lines. The most significant development was the outbreak of war involving Iran in late February. The conflict disrupted global energy markets, with oil prices rising sharply as key supply routes were threatened. Reports indicate more than 20% of global oil flows were disrupted due to instability around the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude prices above $100 per barrel and reigniting inflation concerns. As a result, expectations for interest rate cuts have diminished, and central banks now face a more complicated balancing act between inflation and growth. Despite these challenges, it’s important to keep perspective: markets have experienced similar geopolitical shocks many times before, and historically, their long-term trajectory has generally been shaped far more by earnings growth and innovation than by any single conflict.
Another topic drawing attention is the rapid growth of private credit markets. While recent headlines have raised concerns about transparency, liquidity, and underwriting standards, it’s important to separate signal from noise. Several key points should help provide context:
Private credit is not new risk; it is largely a migration of lending away from traditional banks into alternative channels.
Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, today’s banking system is better capitalized and less directly exposed.
Even large institutional voices note that, while risks exist, private credit is generally viewed as unlikely to pose systemic risk to the broader economy.
We should expect some dispersion in returns and occasional stress in the private lending sector, but that is a normal part of credit cycles, not a sign of structural failure.
As we look ahead, there are three themes we believe may influence markets:
1. Duration of the Iran conflict – The longer the disruption to energy markets persists, the greater the pressure on inflation and growth.
2. Interest rate expectations – Markets are adjusting to a “higher for longer” environment.
3. Earnings resilience – Corporate fundamentals remain a critical anchor, particularly in high-quality businesses.
Periods like this can feel uncomfortable, but they are not unusual. Markets are forward-looking and adaptive. They process uncertainty quickly and often overreact in the short term. As always, we are monitoring developments closely and positioning portfolios with conviction.
Please don’t hesitate to reach out if you would like to discuss your portfolio or the outlook in more detail.
Sincerely,
Stephen W. Miller, CIMA, CRPC® James E. Miller, CFP®, CKA®
Senior Wealth Advisor Senior Wealth Advisor
J. Parker Morris, CFP® Tucker N. Bryan, AAMS®
Wealth Advisor Associate Financial Planner
Miller Wealth Management is a team of EverSource Wealth Advisors, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor.
Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The views expressed reflect current opinions as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. All investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance and historical market behavior are not indicative of future results. This information does not take into account your specific financial situation; please consult a qualified financial, tax, or legal professional before making any investment decisions.